Petrol & Diesel Price Prediction Analysis
The petroleum pricing mechanism in Pakistan is governed by international refined product benchmarks rather than raw crude oil alone. The Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and the Ministry of Finance determine fortnightly price revisions for Motor Spirit (Petrol 92 RON) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD) based on the 7-working-day rolling average of Platts S&P Global Arab Gulf Mean assessments.
1. Expected Petrol Price Forecast (Motor Spirit 92 RON)
As of today (8 Sept 2026), OGRA's official 7-working-day rolling average for Platts Arab Gulf Petrol stands at $113.61 / bbl, alongside a 7-day USD/PKR exchange rate of 277.59 PKR. Feeding these into OGRA's own Import Parity Price formula reproduces the current notified rate of PKR 358.77 / L.
2. Expected High-Speed Diesel (HSD) Forecast
OGRA moved diesel onto a different basis in its 20 August 2026 notification. HSD is no longer priced from the Platts Arab Gulf Gasoil quote; it is built from Dubai crude, averaging $100.00 / bbl over the same 7-working-day window, plus the Aramco Arab Extra Light premium, freight and insurance, and the HSD crack. Running OGRA's own buildup on the projected benchmark gives an expected diesel price of PKR 384.02 / L, against the current notified rate of PKR 381.77 / L.
3. Key Factors Driving Oil Price Forecasts in Pakistan
Arab Gulf Platts Assessment
7 working days' rolling average FOB Arab Gulf quotes for Gasoline 92 RON & Gasoil.
USD/PKR Exchange Rate
Interbank exchange rate averages directly dictate the Rupee import parity price (IPP).
Petroleum Levy (PL) & Duties
Federal Petroleum Levy (currently PKR 80.00/L) and Customs Duty (PKR 21.02/L on petrol).